In less than 2 Days to go, Delhi Assembly Elections 2015 would take place. This is going to be a Historic Election, not only because it is a re-run of the 2013 Assembly Election but also because it is the final showdown between the ruling party BJP and AAP(the 2nd largest party to emerge in 2013 Election). Although most of the opinion polls show more or less complete crowding of its winning seats, but still it would be too early to accept the fact that Congress has lost its ground in a territory where it Governed for 15 years. The actual result could only be predicted approximately until the real picture is presented on 10th February 2015. For this prediction, we have enough data by the means of opinion polls by various media houses and survey companies.
Accuracy of Opinion Polls for Delhi Assembly Elections 2015
The accuracy(of these opinion polls) is often questioned, but the answer to these is dependent on a series of factors. The sample size is often the main criterion which gives us an idea about the accuracy of each opinion poll. A survey which takes into account the opinion of 10,000 people about their choice of party between AAP, BJP, Congress and others is surely a better and a more accurate indicator than a survey that just surveys 1,000 people. Yet, sample size is not the only indicator of accuracy of opinion polls. For the Delhi Assembly Elections too, the accuracy of these polls is a tricky business. Nevertheless, these opinion polls are probably the only data we have in order to get a fair share about the mood of the Delhi Voters for the Assembly Elections 2015.
What the Opinion Polls Predict for Delhi Assembly Elections 2015?
The survey firms had started conducting opinions polls as soon as the possibility of an Assembly re-Election arose in Delhi. That means opinion polls for Delhi Assembly Elections 2015 have been coming out since November 2014. What is surprising is the fact the way these opinion polls have fluctuated. Almost all of the earliest opinion polls predicted a comfortable victory for BJP. That means the various opinion polls conducted that month and even one or two months later, predicted upwards of 36 seats(which is the majority mark for the Delhi Assembly Elections 2015) for BJP.
But, along the course of last two months, the gap between the seats predicted to be won by BJP and AAP has been narrowing down rapidly. So much that, in the most recent opinion polls, the trend totally pivoted in favor of the Aam Aadmi Party(AAP). The opinion polls by almost all the major media houses and survey firms in the last 2 or 3 days have predicted AAP to win more seats than BJP and some even go to the extent of predicting a majority for the 2-year-old party. This prediction is itself a feat and the chances of it turning into reality are not that bleak because AAP has indeed left no stone un-turned to match its campaigning to that of the Center ruling party, BJP. Congress is being written off in every opinion poll for the Delhi Assembly Elections. Below are the results of some of the recent opinion polls(These polls were conducted by the mentioned firms/channels and were published before 5th February 2015): –
- Economic Times Survey
AAP: – 38 seats
BJP: – 30 seats
Congress: – 02 seats
- ABP Neilson Survey
AAP: – 35 seats
BJP: – 29 seats
Congress: – 06 seats
- Hindustan Times Survey
AAP: – 36 to 41 seats
BJP: – 27 to 32 seats
Congress: – 02 to 07 seats
More Recent Opinion Polls for Delhi Assembly Elections 2015
A day after the above-mentioned opinion polls came out predicting a victory for AAP, another set of surveys were seen predicting a majority for BJP too. 5 such surveys appeared a day after the above opinion polls, out of which 4 predicted 36 seats each for BJP and one predicted a hung assembly. Let us have a look at these opinion polls(also conducted before 5th February 2015 6 p.m.): –
- India TV-C Voter: – BJP- 36 seats, AAP- 31 & Congress- 2
- IBN-7 Data Mineria: – BJP- 36 seats, AAP- 27 seats and Congress- 7 seats
- ZEE-TRF: – BJP: – 32-36 seats, AAP- 30-34 seats & Congress- 4 seats
- The Week-IMBR: – BJP- 36 seats, AAP- 29 seats and Congress- 4 seats
Each of the above four opinion polls predicts 36 seats for BJP.
- News Nation
Predicts 31-35 seats for BJP and 30-34 seats for AAP
Therefore, it is easy to see that there are considerable deviations between the predictions of each of the mentioned opinion polls but still the bird’s eye view could be that the fight is going to be very tough between AAP and BJP. Nevertheless, past experience shows that the actual result is still far from known. Although, these surveys could help us give an idea about the voting trend in the Delhi Assembly Elections 2015 but still we shall not take the opinion polls for granted. Let us wait till the 10th February 2015 when the votes are counted, for this day would answer the questions like: –
- Would BJP counter the opinion poll trends and emerge victorious against the AAP?
- Would Arvind Kejriwal win Delhi against the powerful ruling party, BJP and prove the surveys true?
- Would Congress be able to regain the ground it lost in the 2013 Assembly Elections of Delhi?
We shall know the answers soon, till then, let us hope that no matter which party wins the Election, it is the common Citizen of Delhi who emerges a winner by selecting the right party to run the Government.